Chris Christie's provincial problem: Can he win outside the Northeast?
A recent poll indicates that Christie's popularity might not extend far beyond his home state
There's a whole lot of country out there.
(AP Photo/Rich Schultz)
I
f the entire nation were one big New Jersey, Chris Christie would have the 2016 Republican presidential nomination in the bag.
Except there is only one New Jersey and, as a result,
Christie's hypothetical path to the nomination will have to wind through
far less favorable territory than solely the Garden State. And while
it's tempting to extrapolate Christie's blowout re-election last week as
a sign of his superior electability and presumed frontrunner status,
there are questions about whether the New Jersey governor's broad
support will extend beyond his home turf.
In the latest such indicator, an NBC poll
out Tuesday found that Christie was the preferred candidate of GOP
voters in just one region, the Northeast. There, 57 percent of
Republicans said they would support Christie in a GOP primary versus 22
percent who said they would not.
However, pluralities of Republicans everywhere else said
they would prefer a different candidate. Christie trailed a generic
"other" GOPer in the Midwest (35/30 percent), the South (29/27 percent)
and the West (40/22 percent.)
All told, Republican respondents nationwide are equally
split between Christie, anti-Christie, and unsure. Of course, this poll
might just illustrate the power of hometown advantage — Sen. Ted Cruz
(R-Texas) could be the preferred candidate in the West, for instance —
but it does highlight the governor's main problem should he launch a
presidential campaign. Though he has significant bipartisan appeal — he
won a third of Democrats and two-thirds of Independents in his
re-election bid, according to the New York Times' exit polling data — that might not be much of a draw to many conservatives.
Other recent polling bears out that point.
In a recent survey
conducted by Quinnipiac, only one-third of self-identified
conservatives nationwide had a favorable opinion of Christie, while
one-quarter viewed him unfavorably. And while Christie took the top spot
in a PPP survey
of a theoretical GOP primary earlier this month, he was the top choice
among only three percent of "very conservative" respondents. That put
him dead last with that demographic, behind the likes of Sens. Ted Cruz,
Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio — as well as some more farfetched candidates
like Sarah Palin and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.
Matt Lewis remarked on this problem in The Week
way back in February, comparing Christie to Jon Huntsman, the former
Utah governor who positioned himself as the electable moderate in 2012
only to fizzle out in remarkable, whimpering fashion. Though Christie
had some true conservative bona fides, Lewis wrote, conservative voters
still suspected his high popularity back home was more so "directly
related to his willingness to throw fellow Republicans under the bus. "
Christie has notably sparred with unions, slashed state
spending, and wagged his finger at teachers, all of which should win him
support with conservatives. But he's also developed a moderate image,
dropping a challenge to gay marriage, endorsing some limited gun control
reforms, and suggesting illegal immigrants should be given in-state
tuition rates.
Those latter positions, which padded Christie's
re-election margin, could become huge liabilities in a Republican
primary with its typically more conservative electorate. Fox's Brit Hume noted that problem
on Sunday, saying Tea Party types "are not persuaded by electability
arguments, and they don't like anybody who they think may turn out to be
a moderate."
"In some respects Chris Christie is indeed a moderate," he added, "so he has that to be concerned about."
Plus Christie infamously embraced President Obama
following Hurricane Sandy, drawing ire from virtually everyone else in
his party in the process. If he does indeed run, you can only imagine
what sort of fun his opponents would have with all the pictures of him hugging, high-fiving, and just plain broing out with Obama.
Christie, with his name recognition and enviable
fundraising platform, would be a formidable candidate in a general
election. Yet the biggest question about his 2016 ambitions may not be
whether he can defeat Hillary Clinton or whoever else emerges from the
Democratic side, but whether he can first convince his own party's
skeptics that he's really one of them.