February 19, 2012


ARIZONA SHERIFF PAUL BABEU QUITS ROMNEY CAMPAIGN AFTER ALLEGATIONS BY GAY LOVER





Arizona Sheriff Paul Babeu Quits Romney Campaign After Allegations by Gay Lover
AP
FLORENCE, Ariz. (AP) — A sheriff seeking the GOP nomination for an Arizona Congressional seat was forced Saturday to confirm he is gay amid allegations of misconduct made by a man with whom he previously had a relationship.

Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu on Saturday denied claims he tried to threaten the man, a Mexican immigrant and a former campaign volunteer, with deportation if their past relationship was made public. The man’s allegations were first published Friday in The New Times, a Phoenix alternative weekly magazine.
Arizona Sheriff Paul Babeu Quits Romney Campaign After Allegations by Gay Lover
KSAZ-TV
Babeu, a first-term sheriff who has risen to national prominence with his strong opposition to illegal immigration and smuggling, said the accusations were an attempt to hurt his political career.
He vowed to continue his campaign in Arizona’s rural western 4th Congressional District seat, but said he had called presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s staff to say he would step down from his post as state campaign co-chair.
“This whole rumor, this whole of idea of who I am in my private life has been shopped around,” Babeu told reporters during an hour-long press conference Saturday in front of his sheriff’s office. “This was a way, the hook, of how this could be brought out, and to malign and attack a sheriff who does stand for conservative principals, who does enforce the law.”
The lawyer for the man, Melissa Weiss-Riner, did not returns calls or emails from The Associated Press on Saturday, but told The New Times that Babeu’s attorney and campaign consultant falsely told her client that his visa had expired. Babeu told reporters he believed the man, identified only by his first name Jose, was living in the country legally.
The New Times posted a photo provided by the man of the two embracing. It also posted a cell phone self-portrait of a smiling Babeu in his underwear and another of what appears to be the shirtless sheriff in a bathroom, posted on a gay dating website. The man provided the magazine with photos of himself and Babeu and text messages between the two.
Arizona Sheriff Paul Babeu Quits Romney Campaign After Allegations by Gay Lover
The congressional district where Babeu is seeking election runs from western Arizona through Prescott and south to take in parts of Pinal County south of Phoenix. Its voters are heavily Republican and generally very conservative.
Babeu issued a sweeping denial of any wrongdoing in front of his headquarters. The press conference was attended by about three dozen high-ranking uniformed deputies, local elected officials and citizens.
“I’m here to say that all the allegations that were in the story were untrue — except for the instance that refers to me as gay,” Babeu said. “That’s the truth — I am gay.”
Babeu, who is not married, said he had been in a relationship with Jose that ended sometime before September. Jose also ran his campaign website and Twitter account, and Babeu said he began posting derogatory items on the sites after their breakup.
Babeu said he had his lawyer contact Jose and demand that he stop and turn over passwords allowing access to the sites. Babeu said the postings and actions amounted to identity theft but that he chose to deal with the matter privately through his lawyer.
Babeu is taking on an incumbent tea party Republican who switched districts and state Sen. Ron Gould, a conservative from northwestern, in Arizona in August’s 4th District primary.
Gould said he believed Babeu’s posting of pictures on what the lawmaker called a “homosexual hookup website” were a “Congressman Weiner type of moment.”
Arizona Sheriff Paul Babeu Quits Romney Campaign After Allegations by Gay Lover
Daily Mail
“The real issue here is the poor judgment of a government official, posting those kinds of photos on a public website,” Gould said. “I think that shows a lack of good judgment.”
He also said he believes Babeu’s sexual orientation would hurt him in the district. Gould sponsored Arizona constitutional amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman, an amendment he said drew extremely strong support in the rural counties he and Babeu seek to represent.
Babeu said he has never defined himself based on his ethnicity or sexual orientation, and he would continue to focus on unemployment and the federal deficit in his campaign.
“What I’m trying to do is (be) as forthright as possible, talking about deeply personal, private matters, and trying to be upfront,” Babeu said. “The disclosure of that information is something that I feel no American should have to do.”
Babeu acknowledged that he has sent and posted the photos, but said they were personal. When asked if posting such pictures on a public website showed poor judgment for a public official, he reiterated that he believed they were personal.

February 18, 2012



The actual unemployment 
rate is at or about 19%.
According to the United States Department of Labor, unemployment claims dropped more than expected last week, leaving the real unemployment rate at 8.3%, the lowest in 3 years.
However, is 8.3% truly the “real” unemployment rate? Let’s investigate further.

How is the real unemployment rate determined?

Determining the real unemployment rate is based on a simple calculation:  Tally the total amount of people out of work, but seeking employment, and divide that number by the total amount of people that are employed and in the work force. Well, that seems pretty simple.
The U.S. Department of Labor is continually surveying and gathering data to reach it’s conclusion, which is what we are told, the real unemployment rate.  Every week they try to obtain the most accurate numbers of people that are in the workforce and those that are unemployed and still looking for work.  To do this, every month the the Department of Labor surveys households from the  Current Population Survey, which is used as “a sample for the overall population. It would be impractical to survey every household and keep track of every unemployed person each month. Sufficiently large sample groups are used to make statistically accurate approximations for the size o fthe labor force and those without jobs.”

The current “real” unemployment rate

According to CBS‘ Money Watch, last week saw
… initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropping 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, according to Labor Department, the lowest since March 2008. This just means fewer people are losing their jobs.
However, the number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits dropped by 100,000 last week to 3.43 million, the fewest since August 2008. The continuing claims figure doesn’t include workers receiving extended benefits under federal programs. That number has also shrunk recently. As of Jan. 28, those collecting emergency and extended payments decreased by about 22,800 to 3.48 million. This is one reason the national unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent last month.

So, why isn’t 8.3% the real unemployment rate?

It’s important to remember what Fed Chair Ben Bernanke told Congress last week, “It is very important to look not just at the unemployment rate, which reflects only people who are actively seeking work. There are also a lot of people who are either out of the labor force because they don’t think they can find work.
What does this mean?  It means that in order to be considered IN the labor force, a worker must be actively looking for employment to be considered in the labor force and to be counted as unemployed.  Workers that are discouraged and not actively seeking a job because there are none to be had, are NOT counted as unemployed, even if they would want to work if ample jobs were available. There are also a large amount of workers that do not work at traditional jobs, such as contractors and freelancers who may be considered employed if they are doing work occasionally, but the amount of work they are doing may be far less than a traditionally employed worker.
This very issue throws a wrench in calculating the real unemployment number. Some estimates are that at least 1.2 million people dropped off the list – those that may be discouraged, but regardless, have stopped actively looking for jobs.  In fact, today the U.S. labor force is smaller than it was two and half years ago, meaning fewer people are working and even fewer are looking for jobs. In June 2009, the labor force was at 154,730,000 people, but the current number is 154,395,000.  That’s quite a few people that have given up on finding a job.

“Seasonally Adjusting” to Determine the real unemployment rate

According to Charles Biderman:
The BLS each month reports two data series, but only one jobs number is reported by the media. Actual jobs outstanding, not seasonally adjusted, are down 2.9 million over the past two months. It is only after seasonal adjustments – made at the sole discretion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics economists that 2.9 million less jobs gets translated into 446,000 new seasonally adjusted jobs for January and December.
So, in addition to a huge number of workers not even being included in the labor statistics because they have stopped looking for work, the U.S. Department of Labor apparently does some “creative” calculating of “seasonable” jobs.  What is its formula for these its calculations?  Your guess is as good as mine.
The Real Unemployment Rate
What is the REAL unemployment rate?
According to Lubbockonline.com, the real unemployment rate takes the following into account, bringing the true unemployment rate up to 19%:
President Obama has been celebrating the 243,000 jobs created in January.  However, no mention has been made byObama or the White House that 1.2 million people gave up looking for work in January.  These 1.2 million people were removed from the group of persons who are reported to be unemployed, dropping the pretend unemployment number to 8.3%.
There has also been no mention that while Obama is bragging that he added 3.7 million new jobs, the reality of the situation is that 4.4 million jobs have simply disappeared from the United States of America since Obamabecame President.
A total of 4.7 million people have stopped looking for work since the Inauguration of President Obama.  Added to the 12.7 million, the total of unemployed is 17.4 million without work or about 11%. 
When one adds in the 10.5 million who are working part time but would like to be working full time, we have 28 million who are unemployed or underemployed.  This is an unemployment rate of 17%.
If one then adds the 2% of our population who are in jails or prisons, the actual unemployment rate is at or about 19%.
The real unemployment rate.

February 16, 2012


Why Do Public Health Advocates Lie About the Risks of Smoking?
August 30, 2002

JOSEPH BAST

Joseph Bast is president and CEO of The Heartland Institute, a 28-year-old national nonprofit... (read full bio)

At the Northwestern train station in downtown Chicago, commuters are met with a billboard that reads: “Odds of dying in a car crash: 6,200 - 1; dying from smoking: 3 - 1.”
The ad, paid for by the Illinois and Chicago departments of public health, is obviously meant to encourage smokers to quit. But is it accurate?

Apples and Oranges
The billboard’s message is fraudulent two ways. First, it compares the risk of driving a car for one year with the risk of smoking for a lifetime, an apples and oranges comparison. The “odds of dying in a car crash” were apparently derived by dividing the total population of the U.S. by the annual number of vehicular deaths in the U.S.: about 280 million divided by 45,000. Given a life span of 75 years, the lifetime odds of dying from a car accident are really about 90 to 1, not 6,200 to 1.
Second, the billboard exaggerates the odds of dying from smoking. The actual odds a smoker faces of dying from smoking before the age of 75 are about 12 to 1. Describing how this estimate is derived simultaneously rebuts much higher estimates popular in the public health community.
The Surgeon General, using statistical models, estimates a total mortality risk from smoking between .18 and .36. The billboard’s claim of “3 - 1,” or .33, is at the high end of this range.
But the basis for these numbers has come under heavy fire from experts, such as Robert Levy, an adjunct law professor at Georgetown University, and Rosalind Marimont, a mathematician and scientist who worked for the National Institutes of Health for 16 years before retiring.


Lies and Statistics
In a 1998 article titled “Lies, Damned Lies, and 400,000 Smoking-Related Deaths,” Levy and Marimont show how removing diseases for which a link between smoking and mortality has been alleged but not proven cuts the hypothetical number of smoking-related fatalities in half.
Replacing an unrealistically low death rate for never-smokers with the real fatality rate cuts the number by another third.
Controlling for “confounding factors”—such as the fact that smokers tend to exercise less, drink more, and accept high-risk jobs—reduces it by about half again. Instead of 400,000 smoking-related deaths a year, Levy and Marimont estimate the number to be around 100,000.
This would place the lifetime odds of dying from smoking at 6 to 1 (45 million smokers divided by 100,000 deaths per year x 75 years), rather than 3 to 1. However, about half (45 percent) of all smoking-related deaths occur at age 75 or higher. These can be called “premature” only by stretching common usage of the word. The odds of a life-long smoker dying prematurely of a smoking-related disease, then, are about 12 to 1.
A billboard that reads “Odds of dying in a car crash: 90 - 1; dying from smoking, 12 - 1,” would more accurately convey the truth than the current model, but might be less likely to capture our attention. Is it okay for health officials to lie to get our attention?